Just as computers and the Internet have evolved over the years, STELLA and iThink software, effective tools for building and communicating models of highly-complex systems, have grown and evolved since their introduction in 1985. Karim points out the highlights of isee systems’ most recent Version 9.1 release.

Can you give us a quick bullet list of what’s new in STELLA and iThink Version 9.1?

Karim: The big three are: 1.) the ability to break models down into separate pieces or modules that can be developed and shared between different people, 2.) support for isee NetSim, which allows you to share your models on the Web, and 3.) added capability for building causal loop diagrams. There are other features as well that will be very important to some of our customers. We listen very carefully to our customers and implement what will make their jobs easier.

Of these new features, which one stands out in the crowd and why?

Karim: From a communication point of view, isee NetSim’s web-based model sharing is critically important, a capability our customers have been requesting for quite some time. From a modeler’s point of view, modules introduce a better way of defining models. You start with a dynamic hypothesis and then break it down into many decomposed problem area pieces that can be worked on by different people on the team, much in the same way that object-oriented programming allows large computer programs to be broken down. It really opens the way to team development of larger models. Other advantages include source control of the individual pieces which many of our customers feel is critical, allowing for proprietary models, and the ability to test and debug independent pieces.

What do you envision for future releases of STELLA and iThink?

Karim: We are committed to building products that are easy for people to use to both develop System Dynamics models and communicate results to their clients, co-workers and students. As much as possible, we are avoiding adding any features in a way that would require the end user to have to write code to program what they want done. As we move forward, we are planning to add agent-based features tied to the System Dynamics paradigm and better ways to communicate the results of the simulations – for example, animation. Every feature we add will be accessible to individuals who are not programmers.

To learn more about the new features in Version 9.1, visit www.iseesystems.com/Version91

Peter Lacey, WSP

While many public organizations struggle to reduce the number of seniors that are placed in government funded long-term care, Leicestershire County had managed to reduce the number of placements. Pleased with their good performance, county staff were hopeful, but uncertain, that it was linked to innovative new programs that diverted people from long term care. And they wondered if plans for extra care housing would provide another good alternative to long term care and further reduce placement rates.

Leicestershire County turned to the Whole Systems Partnership (WSP), a consultancy specializing in health care and social services that applies system dynamics and Systems Thinking to its engagements. “We could have plugged numbers into a spreadsheet to see how the programs had performed over time,” explains Peter Lacey, founder of WSP, “but without Systems Thinking and iThink, we still would not have known if good long term care placement performance could be attributed to programming or socio-economic variables.”

Working with Leicestershire County employees who were fully engaged in the process, WSP began to model the long term care system by defining and quantifying a wide variety of socio-economic variables. These included:

• the number of seniors in various age categories
• life expectancy rates
• illness rates in the various age groups
• the number of seniors who could afford their own care
• the number of seniors with family support
• the number of seniors who were living alone

The model also considered three long term care diversions or alternatives:

• intensive home care
• intermediate care (rehabilitation)
• extra care housing (supported, independent living)

“We were really concerned that recent good performance would be undermined by the growing numbers of older people. We benefitted hugely by being able to gauge the relative impacts of socio-economic factors and our own service redesign initiative” said Sheila Rochester, Assistant Director. “The model and simulation created by WSP illustrated that our programs, particularly intermediate care, were making the biggest difference. As important, we were surprised to discover that our plans for extra care housing would not have as big an impact as we anticipated, which made us rethink this service development in the light of the wider community support networks we were being encouraged to develop with partner organisations in the health care sector.”

Certainly the iThink model and simulation gave Leicestershire County the information it needed to sustain high performance levels. Peter Lacey points out another real benefit. “When we use Systems Thinking and iThink in consulting engagements, we’re able to involve stakeholders in the process. They learn about their systems together. They see which variables have the greatest impact. In many cases people who usually have an antagonistic relationship get to work together. That goes a long way to ensuring successful system improvements.”

The Barry Richmond Scholarship Award was established in 2007 to honor and continue the legacy of isee’s founder, Barry Richmond. Barry was devoted to helping others become better “Systems Citizens”. It was his mission to make Systems Thinking and System Dynamics accessible to people in all fields and professions.

The award is presented annually at the International System Dynamics Conference to a deserving Systems Thinking/System Dynamics practitioner whose work demonstrates a desire to expand the field or to apply it to current social issues. Applicants are considered based on quality of work as well as financial need.

Navid Ghaffarzadegan accepts 2008
Barry Richmond Scholarship Award

This year, isee systems presented Navid Ghaffarzadegan, a PhD student and Graduate Assistant in Public Administration and Policy at State University of New York—Albany,with the $1,000 cash scholarship that helped fund his trip to the conference in Athens, Greece. Navid’s work applying System Dynamics to decision-making and learning was an area of great personal interest to Barry. It provides insights for improving medical decisions, threat assessment and other key learning problems in our interconnected world.

Applications for the 2009 Barry Richmond Scholarship Award will be available on the iseesystems and System Dynamics Society web sites. Check those sites for more information.

Have you ever wondered why some energy experts say that we have more than enough oil left to meet the rising demand for energy, while others seem to think we've almost reached the end...and still many others think somewhere in between? Fortunately, you don't have to leave this up to just the experts! By applying the iThink/STELLA operational language of Systems Thinking (stocks and flows) and other supporting Systems Thinking skills (Closed-loop Thinking and Non-linear Thinking) you can build confidence in your own estimates of how long our oil supply will last.

In his ongoing isee NetSim model series, Chris Soderquist of Pontifex Consulting has developed Calculating Reserves, an online learning laboratory for understanding how industry experts estimate reserve life, including the most common calculation. This NetSim is designed for the layperson, so you don't need a degree in geology! To begin exploring and learn more about this topic, visit:

http://forio.com/broadcast/netsim/netsims/PontifexC/calculating_reserves/index.html

Don’t miss out! Get current with… innovative iThink and STELLA applications better ways to communicate Systems Thinking and feedback modeling approaches that deliver results effective techniques and methodologies latest software developments Register today for the upcoming isee User Conference Dates:  October 9-10, 2008 Place:  Burlington Sheraton, Burlington, Vermont (Special room rate of $149 per night available until September 8, 2008) Special Discount:  Conference registrants receive 20% off all product purchases through November 15, 2008 To learn more, visit www.iseesystems.com/userconference